Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) spent the past 24 h defending the 78 000 $ area, carving out a series of higher-lows on the hourly chart (77 967 $ → 78 025 $ → 78 188 $) while volume tapered off from the US-session spike. The market is still sitting in “Extreme Fear” (FGI = 17) but the combination of a +562 M $ net inflow into spot-BTC ETFs, a stabilising macro backdrop (ISM PMI 52.6, risk-on tone in equities) and very light perpetual-funding rates indicates that most forced sellers have already been flushed out. Derivative liquidations have normalised and exchange reserves ticked down in the last four hours, hinting at coins leaving trading venues.
For Ethereum (ETH), the picture is more muted: 24 h net outflows from ETH ETFs (-2.9 M $) and continued whale deposits to Binance capped the rebound. Nevertheless, price action shows a bullish divergence—price made a marginal low at 2 272 $ while 1-h RSI printed a higher low—suggesting seller exhaustion near 2 250 $. Gas fees and on-chain activity remain subdued, but ETH/BTC has stopped bleeding just above 0.029, usually a precursor to short-term mean reversion when BTC begins to firm.
In the next five hours liquidity will be thin (mid-US morning to early-EU afternoon) and there are no major macro catalysts scheduled. With spot buying interest returning and derivatives positioning flat, a mild grind higher rather than an impulsive move is expected. Key levels to watch are 79 400 $ (hourly supply) and 2 320 $ (prior breakdown level). Failure to break those could see prices fold back into the current range, but probability-weighted outcomes favour a modest uptick.