Market Overview
Bitcoin and Ethereum have spent the last twelve hours grinding sideways after Wednesday’s tariff-driven whipsaw. The macro backdrop has improved (equities are green, USD softer, VIX lower) but crypto–specific flows remain negative: spot BTC and ETH ETFs booked almost $1 billion of net redemptions on Wednesday and the Fear & Greed Index sits at 25 (Fear). On-chain and headline flow shows a tug-of-war: new whales and Michael Saylor’s latest $2 billion buy are leaning bid, while profit-taking from ETF holders and a steady bleed from derivatives liquidations cap the upside. Technically, both BTC and ETH printed a ‘higher-low’ recovery after the flush to 87 k (BTC) / $2.90 k (ETH) but have failed three intraday attempts to clear immediate resistance (BTC ≈ $90 100; ETH ≈ $3 030). Hourly OBV and volume have rolled over, hinting at buyer exhaustion. Volatility has compressed (BTC hourly range <0.4 % for the last four candles), which, coupled with falling open interest and a flat funding curve, argues for another coil-type session rather than a breakout. Macro calendars are quiet until U.S. weekly jobless claims and the flash PMI early U.S. afternoon, so crypto will likely trade on internal flows. Given net ETF outflows, fading momentum, and a risk-off tilt still visible in the 25 Fear reading, the path of least resistance is a mild drift lower into the New-York hand-over, followed by range stabilisation. Look for bids near $89 000 BTC and $2 950 ETH to hold unless fresh negative catalysts emerge.